Jason T. Schaffer, MD, FAAEM

• Assistant Clinical Professor of Emergency Medicine, Department of
• Emergency Medicine, Indiana University School of Medicine,
• Indianapolis, IN, USA

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The pilot program should include the testing of balance sheets against a common set of scenarios (elaborated on in Chapter 6 and Recommendation 6 antibiotic resistant bacteria in meat cheap azithromycin 250 mg visa. This should include a disclosure of applicable methodologies for those credit rating products that consider climate risk antibiotics for staph azithromycin 500mg amex. It reviews the components of physical and transition risk bacteria 1000x cheap azithromycin 500 mg, building on the description of ongoing and potential climate impacts in Chapter 2 antibiotics for treatment of sinus infection cheap azithromycin 100 mg amex. It then explores several important questions: How can more robust climate risk data and better analytics be developed, and how can financial institutions continue to build their capacity to utilize climate analytics to inform business decisions What kind of analysis should be undertaken to complement existing risk management How can climate-related risk analysis support and strengthen risk management across different parts of the financial system Physical and transition risks could profoundly impact, among other things, valuation, credit risk analysis, and asset-liability matching. Climate change also has specific locational considerations and impacts on individual physical assets and the firms that own those assets. It can also affect complex supply chains, as well as public and private infrastructure that supports the economy. Understanding and developing tools to analyze and monitor qualitative uncertainties and quantitative risks, including location-specific risks, requires a variety of datasets, methodologies, and measurement technologies. Effectively managing climate risk requires understanding the vulnerability and resilience of economic actors and markets to climate risks because transition and physical risks from climate change do not uniformly impact companies, countries, sectors, or geographies. While there is no one-size-fits-all methodology, tool, or scenario, many approaches may be appropriate for different cases. Integrated environmental and economic datasets and methods are relatively new and evolving so any climate risk management approach should be flexible and allow for ongoing learning and the incorporation of best available science and technology. Climate risk management should recognize that confidence intervals and the accommodation of uncertainty may vary considerably between scientific and financial stakeholders. In each instance, the inherent uncertainties, non-linearities and feedback sensitivities associated with climate change need to be considered; they increase the further into the future one attempts to look. Scenario analysis, covered in Chapter 6, seeks to inform and identify parameters and indicators to better manage deep uncertainties. This chapter focuses on how climate risk analysis can be applied to support and strengthen climate risk management, and the barriers to achieving this goal. The Demand for Climate Risk Management and Data To undertake climate risk management, firms need reliable, consistent, and comparable data and methodologies. Climate risk management helps firms adapt to changes in markets arising from physical and transition risks and it helps them build resilience so they can continue to deliver products and services in the face of those risks. The following summarizes the key concepts framing current climate risk data and management practices. These concepts are consistent with the official definitions promulgated by the interagency U. In this sense, adaptation is not only about managing risk, it is also about taking advantage of opportunities that may arise in broader transformations of markets, including transformations shaping a more sustainable and equitable economy. For firms, the goal is to develop a robust adaptive capacity, which can be defined as, "[t]he potential of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, take advantage of opportunities, and cope with the consequences. To build the adaptive capacity of a firm, its executives may institute adaptive management processes that involve "iteratively planning, implementing, assessing and modifying strategies for managing resources in the face of uncertainty and change" (Keenan, 2018, p. While adaptation and adaptive capacity frame the broader ambitions of firms and markets, in the near-term they must also build a capacity for resilience, which is defined as, "[a] capability to anticipate, prepare for, respond to , and recover from significant multi-hazard threats with minimum damage to social well-being, the economy, and the environment. The resilience of a market or a financial system can be understood as its capacity to withstand various shocks and stresses and still maintain critical levels of performance. At the firm level, organizational resilience is the capacity to identify, diagnose, and manage external shocks and stresses to continue operations and regular business activities (Sahebjamnia, et al. Other types of resilience, including community resilience and ecological resilience, are also central to supporting impact driven decision-making. Defining Climate Risk Management and Data Firms should focus their risk management and long-term governance on building their capacity to adapt to new markets, products and services, while at the same time developing the organizational resilience to be able to actually deliver those products and services in the face of immediate shocks and stress, including both climatic and non-climatic events. Beyond preparing for physical risks, firms should adapt their businesses to facilitate and participate in a transition to a net-zero economy. Managing transition risks includes taking advantage of opportunities associated with new forms of sustainable production and consumption. Both physical and transition risks, because they are novel, represent a challenge to the analytical parameters of conventional risk management, which often focus on specific plausible, but extreme events that have some basis in prior experience. Climate risk should properly be conceptualized as a combination of physical and transition risks-and uncertainties. To build their adaptive capacity and organizational resilience, businesses must develop near real-time intelligence that allows them to better understand a range of plausible events and scenarios. Together, the processes of adaptation and resilience within climate risk management define the demand for climate risk data. In developing this data, time horizons should be considered, given that financial exposure can be somewhere between short-term, relative to certain climate risks, and long-term, for the duration of a durable asset class. Data should allow for both bottom-up and top-down analysis at the appropriate level of detail for the use case (the specific situation in which a product or service will be used). Ideally, available data would support a wide variety of estimates and projections, covering appropriate time horizons with levels of detail, geographical coverage, and confidence relevant to the particular use case. In this ideal situation, these models would produce decision-useful data that are comprehensive, consistent, and comparable and that would inform assessments of the underlying risk, uncertainty, and vulnerability of firms, counterparties, assets, and markets. Vulnerability is a composite measure of exposure, sensitivity and, in this case, the adaptive capacity of a firm to manage the climate risks of a particular asset. Exposure reflects the presence of financial assets coinciding with climate impacts-namely acute extreme events or recognizable patterns of stress. Exposure is the prerequisite to the transmission of climate risks to financially relevant metrics. Sensitivity reflects a measure of the responsiveness of exposed assets to any given shock or stress. For instance, an asset with high exposure and low sensitivity may not be too adversely impacted. While an ecosystem of climate data is emerging, much of the advances in measuring and evaluating asset exposure have not been accompanied by corresponding advances in evaluating the sensitivity of exposed assets or the adaptive capacity of firms to manage sensitivity and exposure. Physical risk data and projections need to be overlaid with exposure data at the asset level. Some financial institutions may have asset-level data to overlay with physical risk data, for example, a bank providing project finance loans. However, most finance use cases will not have direct access to asset-level data for counterparty analysis, let alone analysis of multiple counterparties in a portfolio (such as a listed equities portfolio). Understanding the vulnerability of exposed assets and counterparties to climate risk requires a wide variety of qualitative and quantitative metrics, and detailed data is largely unavailable across most use cases. Expanding Climate Risk Data the increasing adoption of climate risk management practices should incentivize the development of more robust climate risk data. However, while physical risk data is more widely available than transition risk data, both are generally insufficient, and several barriers impede the development of robust decision-useful data. Effective risk management in general, including scenario analysis as described in Chapter 6, relies on the analysis of physical and transition risk data. The two primary barriers to expanding the quality and availability of climate risk data are (i) availability and (ii) standardized definitions. However, the quality and interoperability of these services is at a relative early stage. Significant gaps in sectors and across asset classes are impeding not only climate risk management, but also aspects of operations and investment analysis that depend on data-informed processes. The availability of climate data depends on a variety of public, private and civic sector sources. Historically, climate data was largely environmental and weather data produced by government agencies. Today, climate data serves to help market actors understand climate-related vulnerability in both qualitative and quantitative terms.

The Russians feared the threat to their prestige and authority as protector of the Slavs if they allowed Austria to defeat and humiliate Serbia antimicrobial treatment buy 100 mg azithromycin with amex. The French feared the superior population numbers bacterial diseases generic azithromycin 250mg line, economic resources antibiotics cephalexin order azithromycin 250 mg free shipping, and military strength of their German neighbours antibiotics for uti rash buy azithromycin 100mg lowest price. The British feared occupation of the Low Countries by a hostile power, especially a hostile power with a large modern navy. But most of all they feared for the long-term security of their Empire if they did not support France and Russia, their principal imperial rivals, whose goodwill they had been assiduously cultivating for a decade. Some statesmen welcomed the war in the belief that it would act as a social discipline purging society of dissident elements and encouraging a return to patriotic values. Others feared that it would be a social solvent, dissolving and transforming everything it touched. Italy, Total War I 119 diplomatically aligned with Germany and Austria since the Triple Alliance of 1882, declared its neutrality on 3 August. On 23 May 1915 the Italian government succumbed to Allied temptations and declared war on Austria-Hungary in pursuit of territorial aggrandizement in the Trentino. Romania was rapidly overwhelmed by two invading German armies and its rich supplies of wheat and oil did much to keep Germany in the war for another two years. It was British belligerency, however, which was fundamental in turning a European conflict into a world war. Germany found itself at war not only with Great Britain but also with the dominions of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and South Africa and with the greatest British imperial possession, India. Concern for the defence of India helped bring the British into conflict with the Ottoman Empire in November 1914 and resulted in a major war in the Middle East. On the Western Front in France and Belgium the French and their British allies, reinforced from 1917 onwards by 120 Total War I the Americans, were locked in a savage battle of attrition against the German army. Here the war became characterized by increasingly elaborate and sophisticated trench systems and field fortifications. Dense belts of barbed wire, concrete pillboxes, intersecting arcs of machine-gun fire, and accumulating masses of quick-firing field and heavy artillery rendered manoeuvre virtually impossible. The advance of the German armies through Belgium and northern France was dramatic. The French, responding with an offensive in Lorraine, suffered an almost catastrophic national defeat. Their last attempt at a breakthrough was stopped by French and British forces near the small Flemish market town of Ypres in November. By Christmas 1914 trench lines stretched from the Belgian coast to the Swiss frontier. Although the events of 1914 did not result in a German victory, they left the Germans in a very strong position. It was free to retreat to positions of tactical advantage and to reinforce them with all the skill and ingenuity of German military engineering. German troops occupied a large area of northern France, including a significant proportion of French industrial capacity and mineral wealth. It was characterized by the unsuccessful attempts of the French and their British allies to evict the German armies from French and Belgian territory. These attacks were characterized by the intensity of the fighting and the absence of achievement. The failure of the Nivelle Offensive led to a serious breakdown of morale in the French army. Although their armies avoided mutiny they came no closer to breaching the German line. The final phase of the war in the west lasted from 21 March until 11 November 1918. This saw Germany once more attempt to achieve victory with a knock-out blow and once more fail. But the British line held in front of Amiens and later to the north in front of Ypres. The German offensive broke the trench deadlock and returned movement and manoeuvre to the strategic agenda. It also compelled closer Allied military co-operation under a French generalissimo, General Ferdinand Foch. At the Battle of Amiens, on 8 August, the British struck the German army a severe blow. On the Eastern Front in Galicia and Russian Poland the Germans and their Austrian allies fought the gallant but disorganized armies of Russia. This did nothing to lessen casualties, which were heavier even than those on the Western Front. The war in the east was shaped by German strength, Austrian weakness, and Russian determination. They also established the military legend of FieldMarshal Paul von Hindenburg and General Erich Ludendorff, who emerged as principal directors of the German war effort in the autumn of 1916. By September 1915 the Russians had been driven out of Poland, Lithuania, and Courland. Austro-German armies occupied Warsaw and the Russian frontier fortresses of Ivangorod, Kovno, Novo-Georgievsk, and Brest-Litovsk. Italian entry into the war compelled the Austrians to fight on three fronts: against Serbia in the Balkans; against Russia in Galicia; against Italy in the Trentino. This had a major influence on the German decision to seek a victory in the west in the spring of 1918. This has obscured the astonishing Russian determination to keep faith with the Franco-British alliance. Without the Russian contribution in the east it is far from certain that Germany could have been defeated in the west. In southern Europe the Italian army fought eleven indecisive battles in an attempt to dislodge the Austrians from their mountain strongholds beyond the Isonzo river. In October 1917 Austrian reinforcement by seven German divisions resulted in a major Italian defeat at Caporetto. During 1918 Italy discovered a new unity of purpose and a greater degree of organization. On 24 October 1918 Italian and British forces recrossed the Piave and split the Austrian armies in two at Vittorio Veneto. In the Balkans the Serbs fought the Austrians and Bulgarians, suffering massive casualties, including the highest proportion of servicemen killed of any belligerent power. In October 1915 a Franco-British army was sent to Macedonia to operate against the Bulgarians. The Germans mocked it and declared Salonika to be the biggest internment camp in Europe, but the French and British eventually broke out of the malarial plains into the mountainous valleys of the Vardar and Struma rivers before inflicting defeat on Bulgaria in the autumn of 1918. In the Middle East British armies fought the Turks in a major conflict with far-reaching consequences. Here the war was characterized by the doggedness of Turkish resistance and by the constant struggle against climate, terrain, and disease. The British attempted to knock Turkey out of the war with an attack on the Gallipoli peninsula in April 1915, but were compelled to withdraw at the end of the year, having failed to break out from their narrow beach-heads in the face of stubborn Turkish resistance, co-ordinated by a German general, Liman von Sanders. The British also suffered another humiliating reverse in Mesopotamia when a small army commanded by MajorGeneral Sir Charles Townshend advanced to Ctesiphon but outran its supplies and was compelled to surrender at Kut-al-Amara in April 1916. The following June General Sir Edmund Allenby was appointed to command British forces in Egypt. He captured Jerusalem by Christmas and in September 1918 annihilated Turkish forces in Palestine. In East Africa, however, a German army of locally raised black African soldiers commanded by Colonel Paul von Lettow-Vorbeck conducted a brilliant guerrilla campaign, leading over 100,000 British and South African troops a merry dance through the bush and surrendering only after the defeat of Germany in Europe became known. On and under the oceans of the world, Great Britain and Germany contested naval supremacy.

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